Beijing's AI export rule is a passport office, not a wall — and DeepSeek already has its stamp
DeepSeek and MiniMax clear Beijing's export desk
The first filers are the champions. Late Thursday, Yuyuan Tantian, a widely followed social-media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, said DeepSeek and MiniMax had completed registration under Beijing's draft AI export controls, including the paperwork for open-sourcing and overseas use. The draft covers 23 technologies, from models to compute clusters, and its registration rule took effect immediately.
A message, not a notice. No ministry published a list. A CCTV-linked account did, telling firms they can carry on with "commercialisation efforts as usual." It also contrasted Beijing with Washington's export bans. Washington had moved against DeepSeek days earlier; Beijing's reply is to clear it for export. That is my inference, but the timing is hard to read otherwise.
What's actually controlled. The same post says API access, web apps and SaaS built on restricted models are exempt. What's covered is overseas deployment of the models themselves. The rule reads as caring less about who calls your endpoint than about who runs your weights on their own hardware — the line you would draw for visibility, not denial.
THE TELL: each side reports a different half. Bloomberg's headline frames labs as winning approval; the Chinese post stresses that the catalogue sets boundaries and business goes on. Registration is not approval, and I haven't seen either company's filing — everything here is state media, relayed.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING: who is named next. Yuyuan Tantian's Friday post said overseas users had urged other Chinese open-source models to follow suit, per a wire report carried by AsiaOne.
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The plenum script is the 2016 script
Sinocism put the two speeches side by side. Xi's Thursday Long March address ran about a third the length of the 2016 one, according to Sinocism, the China-politics newsletter. In 2016 the frame was four great expeditions, ideals first. This year it is four roads to victory, and the first and longest is the Party's correct leadership and the need for a core.
The new lines are about discipline. Left-line errors cost the Red Army dearly; the January 1935 Zunyi meeting made Mao its leader; afterwards the army "defeated Zhang Guotao's separatism." Zhang was the rival commander who contested Mao's authority. Sinocism says that line was absent in 2016 but appears in the Party's 2021 historical resolution.
The parallel is the point. In 2016 the speech came three days before the Sixth Plenum gave Xi the core title. This one came four days before the fifth plenum, which SCMP expects to centre on renewed anti-corruption work and clues to a looming leadership reshuffle. SCMP has it running Monday to Wednesday, so my earlier 26-to-29 October window may be a day long.
My read: the title is already his, so this speech does other work. It reminds roughly 300 attendees why one core matters, with 35 of the Central Committee's 205 members investigated or stripped of legislative seats, per the tally I cited yesterday.
A 7.0 quake, handled fast. The Thursday-night quake in Nagqu, Tibet, killed 16 and injured 65, per SCMP; Xi ordered all efforts onto rescue despite altitude and cold. By Friday afternoon the central bank had moved 200 million yuan (~$28m) to Nagqu and 300 million (~$42m) on to Baqing County.
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Domestic compute is paying off
iFlytek trained on home-grown chips and undercut DeepSeek. On Thursday iFlytek, the Hefei voice-AI company, launched Spark X2.6: a cloud model labelled 293-A30B with a 1 million-token context, plus an open-sourced 4B on-device model. Chairman Liu Qingfeng said it was trained in two to three months entirely on domestic compute. Output costs 3.6 yuan (~$0.51) per million tokens and uncached input 0.9 yuan (~$0.13); iFlytek says both undercut DeepSeek's V4.1 Flash.
The cache is the real claim. iFlytek says a four-tier KV cache on all-domestic hardware lifted its hit rate from 63% to 95.7%, and cut long-context training on its Feixing-2 cluster from 4.5 months to 1.2. Self-reported. But cached-context economics are the lever OpenAI and DeepSeek both pulled this week.
Cambricon puts it in the P&L. The domestic AI-chip supplier's third-quarter revenue doubled to 3.531 billion yuan (~$497m), and net profit rose 147.7% to 1.404 billion yuan (~$198m). Operating cash flow was negative, about 83.7 million yuan (~$12m). Substitution is real; so is the working capital it eats.
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Samsung and SK Hynix chase YMTC at home
YMTC has passed Samsung. Omdia figures, as relayed by TMTPost, put Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC), China's leading NAND flash maker, at 38.5% of China's NAND market in the second quarter. That is ahead of Samsung's 33.5% and SK Hynix's 17%. For all of 2025 YMTC held 28%.
Same facts, different hero. Reuters led with Samsung's Xi'an plant moving to 286 layers and SK Hynix's Dalian plant to 240-plus, and with whether US licences cover it. Washington said in 2025 it did not intend to approve such upgrades.
TMTPost's hero is YMTC. It treats the Korean upgrade as a response and notes the Xi'an and Dalian lines run about 200 and 192 layers, against newer products elsewhere in the groups. It ends on the point that holding advanced technology and being free to use it are now different things.
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Scalpers, layoffs and foreign hardship stories
The folding iPhone's premium lasted a week. On Friday's launch, scalpers outside Apple's Guangzhou store paid 900 to 1,200 yuan (~$127 to $169) over price for iPhone Duo, against 300 to 500 for last month's iPhone 18 Pro, TMTPost found. Online premiums topped 6,000 yuan (~$845) when presales opened on 16 October. On resale app Dewu the 256GB average has slid from above 20,000 yuan (~$2,800) to about 17,000 (~$2,400).
Buyers know the flaws. The phone weighs 254 grams, Apple's heaviest, and drops Face ID; "WeChat not adapted" hit Weibo's top hot search Thursday. One buyer said posting a first-generation unboxing mattered more. Scarcity is the product.
Executives say "eliminate"; workers say "optimised." At its Friday conference, Kingdee, the enterprise-software maker, had chairman Xu Shaochun tell attendees to use AI to eliminate old processes, not speed them up; 3,706 customers now pay for its agent platform.
Meanwhile, the forum. Developers on V2EX, the programmers' forum, asked the same morning how a 35-year-old Java engineer survives monthly layoffs, what to learn after a year of AI writing nearly everything, and what comes next for a games programmer near the cut. One title asks how to avoid being "optimised," office slang for laid off. Forum sentiment, not data.
Foreign hardship is a genre. China Digital Times translated a WeChat post by commentator Xu Peng attacking Chinese reports that young Japanese are "canceling meals." Outlets including Henan's Dahe Daily and the state news agency China News Service built it on one 23-year-old woman. The underlying survey found just 14% of meal-skippers cited saving money, against 31.4% citing lack of time.
It is a pattern. The translator lists Japan travel-danger stories and a US-poverty narrative, and cites a scholar's warning about overconfidence at home. SCMP found Chinese netizens watching France's riots with cynicism, pride and some sadness over damaged landmarks. State media also demanded Japan's KDDI apologise over a Mongolian border wildfire that Japanese media link to its subsidiary.
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Threads we are pulling
- Export draft: ledger, gate or both. On 16 October I called Beijing's draft a gatekeeper; on 20 October, a ledger. DeepSeek and MiniMax clearing it says it is a ledger that doubles as a licence list. No word yet on Alibaba's Qwen, Moonshot AI's Kimi or Zhipu.
- The plenum. On 22 October I read Xi's leftist-dogmatism passage as aimed at the Party itself. Sinocism's text supports that and adds the Zhang Guotao line. The test is whether the closing communique repeats the core language.
- Robot faith has a price. On 22 October I said Unitree's chairman was defending a 388 price-to-earnings ratio. TMTPost says Unitree has shed over 240 billion yuan (~$34bn) of market value since its post-listing high. Humanoid maker AgiBot's planned 1 to 1.5 billion yuan raise values it near 50 billion (~$7bn), with a Hong Kong listing likely slipping to 2027.
- CATL's squeeze is CATL's. On 20 October I flagged the battery giant's profit lagging sales. Third-quarter net profit rose 14.5% to 21.2 billion yuan (~$3.0bn) on revenue up 58.6%. Rival EVE Energy's profit rose 60.2% on revenue up 64.6%, per IT Home. Whether CATL's gap is pricing or AI-energy spending, these figures can't say.
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