Washington hit China's AI funders and buyers in one day, and DeepSeek shipped regardless
Washington sanctions the investor, bans the model
The target is the funder. On Monday the State Department sanctioned five Chinese entities under the Protecting American Intellectual Property Act. One is Shanghai Zhisuan Technology, founded by Ding Linwei, the ex-Google engineer convicted in January of stealing AI trade secrets. The other four are MiraclePlus, the Beijing venture firm that seeded Zhisuan, and three affiliates.
Investor liability is the precedent. The theory is that MiraclePlus took equity in Zhisuan and gave Ding a stage to pitch replicating Google's infrastructure. Its founder, Lu Qi, is a former Microsoft AI executive who developed Y Combinator's China arm, then kept it going under his own brand. Every Chinese VC now has a reason to vet founders' former employers. That inference is mine.
The DeepSeek order sat for four months. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin signed it on 26 June; it surfaced on 19 October. Civilian agencies must stop buying from DeepSeek and must remove its products, including third-party tools "developed using DeepSeek implementations". Private use remains legal. I can't tell whether surfacing it a month before the Shenzhen summit was deliberate.
Both sides are stacking leverage. Negotiators are racing to close investment deals before the leaders meet at APEC in Shenzhen next month. Congress has the MATCH Act, which would restrict immersion lithography exports. ChinaTalk's guest says China bought about 90 such systems a year in 2024–25, nearly two-thirds of ASML's immersion exports.
The coverage gap. Bloomberg's headline sells a brand: "China's Y Combinator". State's own text describes a funding chain. No mainland outlet in today's feed mentions either action. They covered DeepSeek's code release, a fired intern's funding round and Singles' Day. I found no response yet from Beijing or MiraclePlus.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING: whether Beijing answers before Shenzhen, and whether it names the VC firm.
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DeepSeek opened the plumbing anyway
DeepInfer is the serving stack. DeepSeek open-sourced DeepInfer under Apache 2.0. It runs on Nvidia's SM100 GPUs and Huawei's Ascend 950 chips. Zhidx relays DeepSeek's claims: 155 trillion tokens a day from one cluster, and $38 of revenue per card-hour at off-peak prices. Both are self-reported, and I have seen no reproduction.
The design is worth reading. Decode runs wide expert parallelism across 64 to 128 cards. KV-cache blocks live on a roughly 100 PiB SSD cluster, so any prefill node can hit any prefix, at the cost of prefix-affinity routing. "Bounded replay" recomputes only the last 128 tokens of the sliding-window layers, nearly halving prefill compute.
The catch is what's missing. The KV-cache system and load balancers are not in the release, though a complete service needs both. My read: DeepSeek published the engine and kept the cache tier behind its unit economics. A procurement ban reaches buyers, not a repository, and this landed a day after the order.
MiniMax matched it within 48 hours. MiniMax's M3.1 Flash launched Monday at 1 yuan (~$0.14) per million input tokens and 4 yuan (~$0.56) output, with a 1M-token context and 200-plus tokens a second. By MiniMax's own numbers it ties DeepSeek's V4.1-Flash-1017 on agent benchmarks, at half DeepSeek's peak price.
Chinese labs can now raise prices. TMTPost's tally: Chinese models consumed 86.74 trillion tokens on OpenRouter in the week of 5 October, 4.5 times US models, a lead 24 weeks long. Zhipu, the lab behind GLM, raised average API prices 101% without losing customers. MiniMax tried a hike, fell 15.71% in a day and halved prices. OpenRouter excludes most direct traffic to OpenAI and Anthropic, so it measures only contestable demand.
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Who the AI economy actually rewards
A fired intern raised $30 million. Tian Keyu was a Peking University doctoral student and ByteDance research intern in 2024. ByteDance says he repeatedly killed colleagues' training jobs over compute allocation. It fired him, sued for 8 million yuan (~$1.1m) and won 500,000 yuan (~$70,000). This month his unnamed world-model lab, about ten people, raised nearly $30m at a $200m valuation from 5Y Capital and IDG Capital.
The anger is about the price gap. After a 12 October podcast where he called it "plain justice", five ex-colleagues published a rebuttal. They allege worse damage and an open model passed off as in-house. Those are allegations. TMTPost's commentary reads the fury as arithmetic: a penalty worth about three years of intern pay, a reward of $200m. The investors have said nothing.
Same question, two enforcers. Washington sanctions the investor who backed a founder carrying someone else's secrets. China's internet interrogates its investors by shame. The pairing is mine; neither source draws it.
The drama factory broke. Per TMTPost, Soy Sauce Culture, an AI-drama studio founded by Huang Haonan, grew past 1,200 staff in late 2025. This year it halved targets of 1bn yuan (~$141m) revenue and 200m yuan (~$28m) profit. About 150 finished titles sit unreleased, costing 12m yuan (~$1.7m), and staff are down to 600-odd.
The unit economics are brutal. TMTPost's film-industry piece says an AI-made drama costs 10,000 to 20,000 yuan (~$1,400 to $2,800) against about 300,000 (~$42,000) for live action. But revenue per ten thousand plays has fallen from 30–100 yuan (~$4–$14) to 5–10 yuan (~$0.70–$1.40).
Yuewen opened its vault. The web-novel publisher reported first-half short-drama and animated-drama revenue of 4.3bn yuan (~$606m), triple last year. It says it has adapted under one in a thousand of its stories. Huang told reporters no AI-drama studios will remain after 2026, only one-person companies. My read: when a few people can make a drama in days, margin moves to whoever owns the rights and the shelf.
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Threads we are pulling
- The export draft got a rulebook. On 16 October I called Beijing's draft a gatekeeper, and on 18 October I couldn't say why labs weren't flinching. Sinocism's summary of Friday's proposal covers 23 AI technologies, from models to compute clusters. Public technology is excluded, new open releases could get automatic licensing, and API and SaaS delivery generally sit outside. Registration applies immediately, including to transfers underway. I now read it as a ledger more than a gate. DeepInfer on Ascend tests the cluster category.
- Unitree warned on itself. After the slide from 1,100 yuan to about 420 that I tracked on 15 October, the robot maker's shares rose enough over three sessions to trip the Shanghai exchange's abnormal-trading rule. Its notice cites a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 388.25 against 39.51 for its industry, and warns of valuation reversion.
- The home car market kept shrinking. On 19 October I argued that Chen Deming, the former commerce minister, had diagnosed weak demand yet advised going abroad. 36Kr now cites industry data showing domestic car retail down 28% in September. Li Auto, Wenjie and Xiaomi swung to first-half losses. Wenjie will enter Europe in autumn 2027 with Bosch supplying its driver assistance.
- CATL's profit lagged its sales. The battery maker, reportedly adding about 10bn yuan to DeepSeek's round, posted third-quarter revenue up 58.58% to 165.2bn yuan (~$23.3bn). Net profit rose only 14.54%, to 21.2bn yuan (~$3.0bn).
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