Beijing opened a plenum on loyalty just as the market stopped paying for China's AI story
Xi opens a plenum on discipline
Xi spoke first. SCMP, relaying Xinhua, reports that the fifth plenum began Monday. Xi Jinping delivered the Politburo's work report and explained a draft document on "deepening party self-governance." The communique lands Thursday. The five-year-plan direction was settled at last year's plenum, so this one has no economics to hide behind.
Banquets versus succession. SCMP's account has the session citing lavish dining, illicit gifts and vanity projects while state media defend a decade-long crackdown. An AP explainer leads with loyalty and Xi's expected fourth term in 2027. Each side skips the other's headline.
My read: the petty sins are the vocabulary and the succession is the subtext. A decision about "continuously" promoting governance signals a standing system, not a campaign. One analyst in the AP piece says much the same: less a purge of rivals, more a machine that outlives the cycle. Inference.
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The market stops paying for China's chip story
Dongshan took a 35% haircut. Suzhou Dongshan Precision, which makes circuit boards and optical modules for AI servers, priced its Hong Kong IPO at HK$86.80, under the HK$93.80 cap. It raised about HK$9.9 billion ($1.3 billion). That is roughly 35% below its Friday Shenzhen close, which was itself nearly 60% off a June peak.
THE NUMBER: 0.39x. TMTPost reports that margin-financed orders covered just that much of the Hong Kong public tranche. Cornerstone investors had pre-committed about $680 million, and another listing that closed the same week drew over 31x. The money exists. It wants a label other than "AI supply chain."
The memory queue stalls. SK Hynix paused its Solidigm IPO on 23 October. DRAM maker CXMT debuted on Shanghai's STAR Market, its tech board, in July. It jumped 465.82% on day one and was worth 3.28 trillion yuan ($462 billion). It now trades over 30% below its August high. NAND rival YMTC has sat at the inquiry stage since 3 September on a 33 billion yuan ($4.6 billion) filing.
Profit isn't the problem. YMTC's prospectus shows 33.4 billion yuan ($4.7 billion) of first-quarter profit alone. Yet the STAR Market's 50-stock index is down 40.85% since 1 July. My inference: the market is pricing the top of a memory cycle, not this year's earnings.
Cambricon's best quarter, a weaker price. Cambricon, the Nvidia-alternative chip designer, reported third-quarter revenue up 104.47% to 3.53 billion yuan ($497 million). Its shares still sit over 40% below the June peak. TMTPost flags inventory of 11.7 billion yuan ($1.6 billion), up 136% since December, and negative operating cash flow for the quarter.
The substitute story is crowding. IDC data in that piece put Nvidia at 34% of China's AI-accelerator market in the first half, despite a 44% fall. Huawei has promised a new Ascend generation every year. Cambricon's chairman, Chen Tianshi, denied ever discussing a rumoured million-chip shipment next year.
Humanoids: nobody checks the sedan. 36Kr's reporting counts over 300 embodied-AI financings in the first half, up 137%, disclosing 93.5 billion yuan ($13.2 billion). State money sits in 42% of large deals. One investor describes everyone carrying the sedan chair while nobody asks who is inside. Unitree's market value has halved since listing, and investors expect the squeeze after November.
Belief, on the other stage. The same week, Zhidx covered Wang Xingxing, who runs the humanoid maker, telling partners the world's faith in AI is still too small, "including mine." He predicted a physical-AI breakthrough within one to two years. One outlet sells belief; the other prices the exit.
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Kimi answers Washington with a score
A reply without words. GeekPark frames Moonshot AI's K3.1 Pro as an answer to a year of accusations. In July, Michael Kratsios, who runs the White House technology-policy office, said Moonshot covertly distilled Anthropic's Fable model. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floated sanctions. In September Anthropic said about 300,000 Kimi requests were routed to Claude through 5,380 fake accounts.
A score can't say where you came from. GeekPark concedes that third-party numbers are the strongest rebuttal, but the label sticks while training data can't be audited. It notes forum chatter that K3.1 Pro's pelican drawing resembles GPT-6 Astra's. One pelican proves nothing. My view: the weights due 4 November are the real audit.
Cheaper list price, same bill. List price is down a third. But Artificial Analysis finds K3.1 Pro spends 14% more output tokens, leaving cost per task near $1.98, about level with K3. A user on the 199-yuan (~$28) plan says reviewing one small game burned 13% of a five-hour quota, against 3% for Opus. Compute remains Moonshot's constraint.
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The bottleneck moves to the reviewer
NetEase bets on the harness. NetEase's enterprise arm launched CodeWave SDD on Monday. Role-split agents (requirements, architect, developer, tester) work from written specs inside an enterprise harness. It claims 3–5x capacity across 100-plus customer projects. About 70% of a roughly 100-engineer effort went into the harness, not the agents, per InfoQ China.
The data points the same way. InfoQ cites Faros AI, a US engineering-analytics firm. Across 10,000-plus developers, merged pull requests rose 98% while review time rose 91%, with no link between AI adoption and company-level delivery. GeekPark's programmer-day essay relays an Anthropic report that agent sessions idle about 80% of the time waiting for people. Zhidx's verdict on NetEase: full autonomy isn't realistic yet.
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Paid experts and an ageing country
A rate card for independence. TMTPost's commentary targets Wangjingshe, an e-commerce think tank and media outfit. It circulated expert "flash commentary" during a platform spat before the Double 11 shopping festival. Its website prices such packages at 200,000 yuan (~$28,200), including six-plus expert pieces. Its open letter says this commentary was neither commissioned nor paid. Two listed experts told reporters they didn't know they were on its panel.
It rhymes with Kimi. Pekingnology's argument that I cited yesterday was that undisclosed paid posts are routine in Chinese media. TMTPost's piece is one-sided opinion, and Wangjingshe denies any commission. But the pattern is the same: a reader can't tell the voice from the invoice.
The yearbook crossed a line. Solidot reports from the 2026 statistical yearbook that the old-age dependency ratio, 23.1%, passed the child ratio, 22%, for the first time in 2025. People 65 and over are 15.9% of the population and children under 15 are 15.1%. Average household size is 2.52, down from 3.44 in 2000.
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Threads we are pulling
- The plenum test. Thursday's communique is still the test: does it repeat the "core" language from Xi's Long March speech? Today's readouts give only the agenda.
- Green Bubble: I called a rename a launch. Yesterday I said Tencent launched its short-drama mini-program on 15 October. IT Home, citing QuestMobile, says it replaced an older mini-program in July and had 143 million monthly users in August. Weekly users hit 89.68 million in October's first week, up 44.1%. The 15 October date probably belongs to the incentive scheme. Inference.
- The app retreat went industry-wide. On 24 October I called ByteDance folding its standalone apps. Tencent's QClaw agent shuts on 24 December, 188 days from public beta to shutdown notice. TMTPost carries Seemotion's report that Feishu's chief strategy officer, Shi Zhijun, is leaving after ByteDance split Feishu between Doubao and Volcano Engine. ByteDance hasn't responded.
- Moonshot and the export draft. I still see no report that Moonshot registered under Beijing's draft export rules. Weights are due by 4 November.
- Memory profits met the market. Demingli's 2,902.75% quarterly profit jump, which I flagged on 25 October, sits against a share price down about 64% since 1 July. Micron's Taoyuan union talks resume tomorrow.
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